Business, Freight News, Sea

Boxship Order Book Hits Record 8.3M TEUs, BIMCO

[ January 10, 2025   //   Gary G Burrows ]

The global container ship order book reached a record 8.3 million 20-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, compared with the previous high of 7.8 million TEUs in early 2023, said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO.
As 4.4 million TEUs were contracted during 2024 – the second highest ever – the order book grew despite deliveries hitting a new record high of 2.9 million TEUs. “Making up 92 percent of the order book capacity, ships 8k TEU or larger dominate the order book. The largest segment, 12,000 to 17,000 TEUs, makes up 46 percent of the order book capacity,” Rasmussen said.
Shipyards in China have benefitted the most from the last four years’ contracting boom and currently hold 72 percent of the order book’s 8.3 million TEUs while South Korean and Japanese shipyards hold 22 percent and 5 percent, respectively, BIMCO said.
Liner operators control 79 percent of the order book capacity, significantly higher than the 61 percent they control of the fleet capacity. Having already increased from 56 percent at the beginning of 2019, liner operators’ share of fleet capacity is expected to continue growing in the coming years.
Though five ships have already been contracted for delivery in 2030, 99 percent of the order book will be delivered during 2025-2029. According to the current delivery schedule, 700,000 TEUs will be delivered in 2029 while an average of 1.9 million TEUs will be delivered during 2025-2028, peaking at 2.2 million TEUs in 2027, according to BIMCO.
As recycling of ships during the past four years has been limited to 166 ships and 256,000 TEUs, the average age of the fleet has increased 1.4 years since the beginning of 2020. Consequently, the number of ships 20 years old or older has risen, and they now make up 3.4 million TEUs, equal to 11 percent of the fleet.
If all ships 20 years old or older are recycled during the next five years, the fleet will grow to 35.8 million TEUs by end 2029, assuming no more ships are contracted for delivery before 2030, BIMCO said. That is equal to 16 percent growth or average annual growth of 3 percent. The segments smaller than 8,000 TEUs would see an average annual contraction of 4 percent while the segments 8,000 TEUs or larger would grow on average 7 percent per year.
“It would require 680,000 TEUs per year to recycle all ships 20 years old or older during the next five years (the current annual record is 657,000 TEUs), but actual recycling is likely to end lower,” Rasmussen said. “As long as ships cannot fully return to the Red Sea, recycling will likely continue to be low and at the same time the smaller ship segments tend to be recycled later than average. Therefore, average annual fleet growth during the next five years could end higher than 3 percent,” he said.

Tags: BIMCO