Business, Freight News

Tariffs Could Double ‘Red’ States’ Costs, TPW

[ February 24, 2025   //   Gary G Burrows ]

Companies in states that backed President Donald Trump’s election could pay twice as much for new steel and aluminum tariffs, according to Trade Partnership Worldwide’s state tariff database.
Based on 2024 data, new tariffs could add US$11.4 billion in extra import taxes, with US$7.6 billion (67 percent) of that on imports into so-called “red” states, said Dan Anthony, president of at Trade Partnership Worldwide, or TWP, and executive director of the Coalition for Generalized System of Preference, or GSP.
Despite the pause on tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports, state costs of potential new China tariffs “are still massive,” Anthony said. “The new rates would have added US$39 billion in extra tariffs to January-November 2024 trade levels. That represents an 88 percent increase from all tariffs paid on imports from all source countries, or about US$115 million in daily new taxes.”
Shippers may be seriously underestimating costs, he said, due to changes to U.S. de minimis rules, which allow imports under US$800 per person, per day to enter the country duty free.
In a Feb. 12 LinkedIn post, Anthony said: “Some might think any tariff actions could be spun like this since Trump won more states. Not true. Actual tariffs paid in 2024 were split 50/50 between Trump- and Harris-backing states, and Harris-backing states could pay about 1.5 times more in new tariffs on China and Hong Kong. Trump’s base of support, especially in the industrial Midwest, is much more exposed to tariffs on critical manufacturing inputs like steel and aluminum.” (More info on the state tariff database at https://lnkd.in/ekqs4mDA).
In 2018, TPW published research (https://lnkd.in/eAYf2zTa) estimated 400,000 net job losses due to steel and aluminum tariffs. That included states like Indiana (loss of 5,777 jobs), Michigan (11,365), Ohio (13,042), Pennsylvania (14,084) and Wisconsin (7,657) where steel and aluminum employment were expected to increase due to the tariffs.
New cost estimates assume that all imports of steel and aluminum subject to Section 232s will now face a 25 percent tariffs, TPW said.

Tags: Trade Partnership Worldwide